a. Title:
Modelling of influence of global climate change on productivity of agroecosystems in Ukraine.

b. Scientific area/sub area:
Climate Change. Natural and Socio-Economic Impacts.

c. Brief project description:
On the basis of the theory of energy-and-mass interchange in the "soil - plant - atmosphere" system and the quantitative theory of photosynthesis dynamic models of the functioning agroecosystems, which take into account influence of major factors of the environment on processes of survivorship of plants and their growth will be created. Adaptive reactions of agroecosystems to influence of factors of the environment will be modelled.
With the help of various scenarios of climate change in Ukraine quantitative estimations of adaptive reactions of agroecosystems to changes in conditions of their carbon, radiation, thermal and water regime will be made. With he help of the model vulnerability of agroecosystems to climate change, estimation of change in potential of their biological efficiency will be determined. Evaluation of productivity of grain crops and total grain yield at change of climatic conditions in Ukraine will be performed.

d. Project topicality:
Results of climatological fields of temperature and atmospheric precipitation monitoring makes it possible to assert that global anthropogenous warming is aggravated. As a result of the expected rise of air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere estimation of influence of climate change on agroclimatic conditions of agroecosystems, cultivation and productivity of grain crops calls for scientific substantiation of actions aimed at effective adaptation of agriculture to expected climate change, to quantitatively estimate productivity of grain crops and total grain yield at change of climatic conditions in Ukraine.

e. Project goals and tasks:
The overall objective of the research will consist in: simulation and quantitative estimation of the investigations and possible negative tendencies related to the influence of climate change on productivity of agriculture in Ukraine, estimation of the potential of agroecosystem biological efficiency, productivity of grain crops and total grain yield, scientific substantiation of actions aimed at adaptation of the agriculture to the expected climate changes.
The primary goals will consist in:
- quantitative estimation of change in terms for approach of seasonal processes, duration of the vegetation period, soil moisture regime of agroecosystems and grain crops, development of processes of desertification, reduction of the contents of humus in the ground as compared to the present-day state of soil, i.e. in-depth study of climatic conditions, estimation of probability for increase in occurrence for droughts at climate change scenarios coming into being;
- estimation, with the help of a mathematical model, of production process of plants, reaction of agroecosystems and grain crops to changes in duration of the vegetation period, reduction of the autumn vegetation and wintering periods, significant displacement of the beginning of spring vegetation;
- integrated estimation, with the help of the model, of influence of changes in agroclimatic conditions on potential of agroecosystem biological efficiency and cultivation of grain crops on a level of productivity of grain and total grain yield in Ukraine;
- scientific substantiation of actions aimed at adaptation of the agriculture of Ukraine to the expected climate change.

f. Project methodology:
On the basis of the theory of energy-and-mass interchange in the "soil - plant - atmosphere" system and the quantitative theory of photosynthesis dynamic models of functioning agroecosystems, which take into account influence of major factors of the environment on processes of survivorship of plants and their growth will be created. Adaptive reactions of agroecosystems to influence of factors of the environment will be modelled.
With the help of the models for sensitivity of agroecosystems to climate change, estimation of reaction of winter and spring cereal crops to changes in duration of the vegetation period, reduction of the autumn vegetation and wintering periods, significant displacement of the beginning of spring vegetation alongside with evaluation of reduction of potential of biological productivity and reduction of grain yield in Ukraine will be determined. Calculations will be performed under conditions of realization of the scenario formulated in the model of the Laboratory of Geophysical Hydrodynamics, USA (doubling of CO2 content in the atmosphere and 30 % increase in concentrations of CO2) and models of the Meteorological Bureau of the United Kingdom (doubling of CO2 content in the atmosphere) as well as the regional scenarious for climate change.

g. Project time/place:
Years of 2007-2010, Odessa State Environmental University – OSENU

h. Prospective project results:
As a result of performance of the scientific project:
- Dynamic models of agroecosystem and grain crop productivity are developed on the basis of the theory of energy-and-mass interchange in the "soil - plant - atmosphere" system and the quantitative theory of photosynthesis ;
- quantitative estimation of change in terms for approach of seasonal processes, duration of the vegetation period, soil moisture regime of agroecosystems and grain crops, development of processes of desertification, reduction of the contents of humus in the ground as compared to the present-day state of soil, i.e. in-depth study of climatic conditions, estimation of probability for increase in occurrence for droughts at climate change scenarios coming into being;
Are received on the basis of various scripts of change of a climate in Ukraine ;
- Quantitative estimations of reaction of agroecosystems and cereal crops to change of duration of the vegetation period, reduction of the period of autumn vegetation and the period of wintering winter, significant displacement of the beginning of spring vegetation are received with the help of mathematical model for production processes of plants;
- Integrated estimations of influence of changes in agroclimatic conditions on agroecosystems and cultivation of winter and spring cereal crops at the level of grain crop productivity and total yield of grain in Ukraine are received , an estimation of change in potential of agroecosystem biological efficiency is made;
- Scientific substantiation of the actions aimed at adaptation of the agriculture in Ukraine to the expected climate change is developed.

i. Expected project impact:
Estimation of influence of climate change on agroclimatic conditions of agroecosystems, cultivation and productivity of grain crops calls for scientific substantiation of actions aimed at effective adaptation of agriculture to the expected climate changes, quantitative to estimation of productivity of grain crops and total grain yield under change of climatic conditions in Ukraine.

j. Name and title of the leader of the group:
A.N. Polevoy. Doctor of Sciences, Professor.
Head of the Department of Agriculture Metorology and Agrometeorological Forecasts.

k. Names and titles of the main researchers/team members:

• Z.A. Mishchenko. Doctor of Science, Professor, Professor of the Department of Agriculture Metorology and Agrometeorological Forecasts;
• L.Y. Bozhko. Candidate of Science (PhD) in Geography . Associate Professor of the Department of Agriculture Metorology and Agrometeorological Forecasts;
• L.I. Polevaia . Researcher of Odessa State Environmental University;
• E.A. Barsukova. Candidate of Science (PhD) in Geography. Lecturer of the Department of Agriculture Metorology and Agrometeorological Forecasts;
• O.V. Volvach. Candidate of Science (PhD) in Geography. Associate Professor of the Department of Agriculture Metorology and Agrometeorological Forecasts;
• E.A. Dronova. Candidate of Sciences (PhD) in Geography . Associate Professor of the Department of Agriculture Metorology and Agrometeorological Forecasts;
• E.L. Zhigailo. Doctor of sciences, Candidate of Sciences (PhD) in Geography. Associate Professor of the Department of Agriculture Metorology and Agrometeorological Forecasts;

l. Experience and results of the leader and team members of the previous work:

The project is carried out by the staff of the department of Agriculture meteorology and Agrometeorological Forecasts.
The participants enjoy ample expertise at performance of scientific researches in the area:

• mathematical modelling plant productive process and development of models for agricultural crop formation;
• development of methods for agrometeorological forecasts of crop productivity;
• development of methods for estimation of agroclimatic resources, zoning and singling out of zones of various scales of agricultural crop efficiency within the larger territories ;
• estimations of influence of climate change on growth, development and efficiency of plants.

m. Project's divided budget:
USD 110,000