a. Title:
Modelling of dynamics and making up water quality in coastal sea zones, estuaries and lakes aimed at solving applied environmental problems related to water quality management of off-shore shelf and intracontinental water bodies subject to heavy anthropogenous load.

b. Scientific area/sub area:
Applied mathematical simulation of water dynamics   and management of its quality (environmental modeling) for marine shelf  aquatoriums, firths, lakes and reservoirs. Water and environmental management of water objects subject to strong anthropogenous effect.

c. Brief project description:
The north-western Black Sea region includes the aquatorium of north-western part of the Black Sea, 21 firths and 7 freshwater lakes in the mouth part of the Danube. Quality of waters in north-western part of the Black Sea is formed under the influence of flow from 4 large rivers: the Danube, the Dnestr, the Dnepr and the South Bug. Bad eutrophication and development of hypoxia within the near-bottom layer of vast areas during spring and summer period are peculiar to the waters in this aquatorium. In the recreational off-shore area of the sea, adjoining upon the megapolis of Odessa, quality of waters is substantially influenced by the flows of muddy waters of anthropogenous origin. The firths of the north-western Black Sea region are located in the immediate vicinity of the megapolis of Odessa, being subjected to the heavy anthropogenous influence. Some of the firths are isolated from the sea, have unstable hydrological and hydrochemical regime which is determined by climatic conditions. Their resources are not made optimum use of. The Danubian lakes are the sources of freshwater-supply for adjoining settlements, and are also actively used for fish industry and irrigation purposes. The water regime of the lakes and their environmental conditions are regulated artificially. Quality of waters in the lakes does not meet the needs of water consumption.
 Within the framework of the suggested project it is assumed to use the experience of researchers from the USA on the application of mathematical models of water quality at working out optimum strategies for stabilization and improvement of hydrological and hydrochemical regimes and state of the environment  in the stated defective water bodies. For the decision of this task It is possible to make use of a complex of numerical models developed by the authors of the project on the Ukrainian part and perform adaptation, verification and application of the models of water and environmental management developed in the USA.

d. Project topicality - As a result of the heavy anthropogenous load on ecosystems in marine shelf aquatoriums and intracontinental water bodies the task of quality management of their waters by means of regulation and optimization of contaminant discharges, implementation of various environmental and hydroengineering projects acquires utmost importance. Impartial, scientifically substantiated prognostication of environmental consequences, estimation of the efficiency of various administrative decisions in the field of rational use, conservation and restoration of marine aquatorium and freshwater reservoir resources are impossible without the use of mathematical models at managing water quality in the bodies.

e. Project goals and tasks
Development, adaptation and practical use of numerical prognostic balance and spatial-determining models for making up water quality in off-shore and shelf marine aquatoriums, estuaries, lakes and reservoirs at solving applied environmental problems. The use of the developed models for the objective science-based prognostication for environmental consequences of influence of both functioning and planned economic objects on the aquatic environment, performance measurement for various administrative decisions in the field of rational use, control and renewal of resources of the shelf sea area and intracontinental reservoirs of north-western Black Sea Region (the Black Sea estuaries and the Danubian lakes) of Ukraine.

f. Project methodology – the numerical simulationof hydrothermodinamic and chemical and biological processes in a water environment. Balance models of seasonal dynamics of water volumes, mineralisation, concentration and chemical and biological transformation of contaminating matters, primary productivity and cycles of biogenic matters, dissolved oxygen content. Three-dimensional simulation model realized in ?- coordinate system to render formation of thermohaline structure of waters, water level disturbance, wind, gradient and termohalinnie currents. Included in the model are the modules of water eutrophication and water self-purification from the contaminating substances of anthropogenous origin which allow for their chemical and biological transformation. Use of environmental monitoring data for calibration testing of model parameters.

g. Project time/place - Duration of the project 24 – 36 months. Place of performance – Ukraine, Odessa region, aquatorium of north-western part of the Black sea, adjoining estuaries and lakes in the mouth part of the Danube. Odessa State Environmental University and the Odessa Branch of the Institute of Biology of Southern Seas of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

h. Prospective project results
Perfection of the existent up-to-date models for water quality management and development of new ones. Selection of parametrization types for chemical and biological processes that properly meet the geographical and environmental regime descriptions of the water bodies.
Development of science-based guidelines on stabilization of the hydrological regime and environmental state of the endangered Black Sea estuaries and Danubian lakes, making assessment for degree of environmental situation controllability in the off-shore marine aquatoriums, water quality in which is subject to heavy anthropogenous load. Use of the models for estimation of influence of functioning and planned economic objects and waterside structures on environmental state of the aquatic environment.
Model-based collecting of timely information for making administrative decisions. Working out scenarios for management of hydrological and environmental situations at water bodies under various combinations of natural and anthropogenous factors influencing their development. Estimation of possible consequences of taking administrative decisions with the requirements of various water consumers being allowed for. Performance measurement for various decisions in the field of water and environmental management. Assessment of the degree of environmental and hydrological situation controllability for water bodies subject to heavy anthropogenous load

i. Expected project impact.
On the USA part verification of applicability and capacity of the developed up-to-date models at solution of the applied tasks of water and environmental management under the geographical conditions of Ukraine will be conducted, with the regional peculiarities of water ecosystem function being taken into account. A methodology for use mathematical modelling at finding solutions to the applied tasks is developed and improved alongside with the underlying mathematical structure of models.
On the Ukrainian part the realization of project will make it possible to develop the scientifically grounded guidelines for preservation and improvement of water quality in marine aquatoriums and water objects of the Odessa region of Ukraine subject to the heavy anthropogenous effect. A basis for development of the systems aimed at providing support at taking administrative decisions on rational use, preservation and restoration of the resources will be created.

j. Name and title of leader of the group:
Yuriy St. Tuchkovenko. Habil.Dr.Degree in Geography, Ph.D in Oceanology  (Candidate of Science, Physics and Mathematics)

k. Name and titles of the main researchers/team members:
G.G. Minicheva,  Habil.Dr.Degree in Biology
V.N. Komorin, Ph.D in Oceanology 
O.V. Shabliy, Head of the Department of Foreign Relatoins (OSENU)
O. A. Torgonskaya , post-graduate student

l. Experience and results of the leader and team members of the previous work
The leader of the group has a wide 20-year experience of use of numerical mathematical models of hydrological and chemical and biological processes in water ecosystems at solving the applied environmental tasks. Collaborated as an expert at implementation of the following international projects :
Center of oceanographic and hydrographic researches (Columbia, South America):
«Planificacion y Manejo de Bahias y Areas Costeras Fuertamente Contaminadas del Gran Caribe. Estudio de caso: Bahia de Cartagena», Proyecto Global Environmental Facilities - Unated Nations Office for Project Service (GEF-UNOPS)/RLA/93/G41, CIOH, Colombia, 1998;
«Restauracion ambiental de los ecosistemas de influencia del canal del Dique, description y caracterizacion biotica del area», Proyecto Universidad del Norte – CIOH, UN-1999-0010, Colombia, 1999;
«Aplicacion de la modelacion numerica a la solucion de problemas ambientales en lagunas costeras del Caribe Colombiano. Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta», Proyecto COLCIENCIAS – CIOH – UNINORTE – INVEMAR, UN-OJ-2000-0015, Colombia, 2000;
Project EU-TACIS WW/SCRE/N 1 “Lakes of the lower  Danube”, Odessa, 2001.

Author of more than 80 papers on the subject, among which the following should be pointed out:

Tuchkovenko Y. S.,  Lonin S. A.  Mathematical Model of the Oxygen Regime of Cartagena Bay // Ecological modelling.- Published by Elsevier Science B.V. - 2003.- Vol. 165, Issue 1  - P. 91 - 106.

Lonin S. A., Tuchkovenko Y. S. Water quality modelling for the ecosystem of the Cienaga de Tesca coastal lagoon // Ecological modelling.- Published by Elsevier Science B.V. - 2001.- Vol. 144.  - P. 279 - 293.

Calero L. A., Tuchkovenko Y. S., Lonin S. A.  Modelo numerico de calidad de aguas para la Cienaga  Grande de Santa  Marta // Ingenieria  del  agua.- Espana.- 2003.- Vol. 10, № 4. –  P. 479 - 492.

m. Project's divided budget: $74.400 (in one year)