a. Title:
The role of Global Climate changes in developing extreme weather events.

b. Scientific area / sub area:
Atmospheric Sciences / Numerical modelling of the atmosphere and climate.

c. Brief project description:
Society and economy are sensitive to weather extremes and climate changes. Substantial benefits can be gained from a skilful prediction of these natural events. Nowadays it became obvious that changes in the occurrence and intensity of extreme weather events are definitely related to changes in general climate conditions. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are a powerful tool for investigating the behaviour of the atmospheric flow bringing the weather extremes in relation to the climatic state. However, the need for innovative analysis of simulations is apparent, as increasingly more complex models are developed, while the disagreement among these simulations and climate observations remains significant and poorly understood.
This project contributes to the quantitative diagnosis of the extreme weather events with respect to the climate condition on the basis of the MM5v3.7 NWP model. The project is devoted to the use of short-, medium- and extended range model simulations to reproduce the key parameters of weather patterns and to elucidate systematic model errors against the background of climate change. The quantitative description of mechanisms driving the weather extremes and their relationships to various regimes of the atmospheric flow will provide valuable insights for the further prediction of extreme events.
The project results will be of benefit for sustainable development of economy and could help to improve the long-range forecasting system, to optimize risk management and long-term strategic planning.

d. Project topicality:
The project is motivated by  interest in the potential for NWP models to serve as practical tools for better understanding of the climate drivers for extreme weather events. It is based on assessment of the increased number of intensive tropical and mid-latitude storms and their impact on society and economy within the previous decades.

e. Project goals and tasks:
The goal of the project is to quantitatively diagnose the relationships between climate conditions, on the one hand, and the number and intensity of storms, on the other. This includes the following scientific tasks: (i) to quantitatively estimate characteristics of long-term variability in the intensity and frequency of weather extremes with respect to climate conditions; (ii) to determine and describe the mechanisms driving extreme events on various scales; (iii) to quantify the energy flux and water cycle corresponding to severe storms and extreme precipitation events.

f. Project methodology:
Analysis of mechanisms of atmospheric energy and moisture transport is based upon the use of the state-of-the-art numerical modelling system MM5v3.7, which incorporates advanced numerical techniques, offers an ample scope for multiple nesting, improved physics, particularly for treatment of convection and mesoscale precipitation, and high resolution within both vertical and horizontal coordinate systems. The latter factor makes it possible for us us to incorporate comprehensive model outputs into the scope of  modern knowledge in the field of the atmospheric physics for better understanding of the processes in the atmosphere and their simulation by the model.

g. Project time / place:
The project duration is 36 months. Major part of the project will be performed at OSENU. The team has already had the necessary experience and required equipment (the enforced Sun workstation and data storage) to run the modelling system. Additional expertise and deeper knowledge can be gathered from training visits to the worldwide leader centers such as the ECMWF, Meteo-France, DWD and UCAR organizations.

h. Prospective project results:
Better understanding of severe weather events, conditions for their genesis and transformation against the background of climate change as well as reproducing the weather extremes in the numerical model.

i. Expected project impact:
The results will benefit improved security through better understanding, prediction and mitigation of environmental risks brought by increased number of intensive extreme weather events under climate change conditions. In particular, proper estimates of precipitation extremes can be used for the assessment of flooding risks and their minimization through proper planning and taking emergency actions.

j. Name and title of the group leader:
Dr. Sergiy Ivanov, Senior Researcher.

k. Names and titles of the researchers / team members:
Julia Palamarchuk, post-graduate student ,
Denis Pyshniak, post-graduate student
Victoria Piatakova, post-graduate student

l. Experience and results of the leader and team members of the previous work:
Dr S.Ivanov is the expert in numerical modelling and data assimilation fields. He took part at one of the largest international field experiment FASTEX (Fronts and Atlantic Storm Tracks Experiment) at the North Atlantic as the scientific team leader aboard a Ukrainian research vessel. The objectives of the research were the genesis, development and evolution of winter deep cyclones over the Atlantic and their impact on Europe. Thereafter he developed an approach for a posteriori estimation of errors in the models and observation datasets for the ARPEGE(IFS)/ALADIN model at the CNRM, Meteo-France (QJRMS, 2001, 574B, 1433-1452). Later, he worked at the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks with the 4DVAR system to the MM5 model for developing data assimilation system and improving physical parameterization schemes. Dr Ivanov was the team leader of several INTAS projects, and is currently the NATO SfP project co-director. Within this project he works together with the abovementioned post-graduate students on meso-scale modelling of extreme weather events (Advances in Geosciences, 2007, 10, 3-8).

m. Project foreseen budget (36 months):
Equipment and software: USD 60,000
Travel to scientific meetings and practical trainings for post-graduate students : USD 35,000
Consumables and spare parts: USD 5,200
Publications and books purchasing: USD 3,000
Labor costs: USD 46,800  (15,600 per year)

Total: USD 150,000  + overheads (if acceptable)